Quantitative uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo risk simulation


Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) provides a statistical assessment of the project schedule. In the real world, a project schedule is created by a project manager or a master scheduler, often using subjective estimates on how long an activity in the project plan will take. In a project schedule that has hundreds or thousands of activities, the validity of the project schedule becomes called into question by the project team. As a project professional, it becomes very difficult to defend the project schedule and persuade the team to follow it. Not anymore.


Active Risk Manager (ARM) helps your project team trust the accuracy of the project schedule by quantifying the uncertainty associated with each activity in the schedule so you can build statistical confidence that you will complete the project on time. By integrating with the latest versions of Microsoft Project, Oracle Primavera, Deltek Open Plan and many other scheduling applications, ARM will quantify the uncertainty of the project schedule and deliver realistic finish dates of your project date. Furthermore, risk mitigation strategies can then be defined, accountability be assigned and action taken to drive out uncertainty and, hit your date. Top features include:


  • Bi-directional integration with Microsoft™ Project Professional, Oracle Primavera P6, Deltek Open Plan and many other industry leading scheduling applications
  • Monte Carlo risk analysis for both cost and schedule
  • Risk sensitivity analysis
  • Graphical display and reports including tornado charts, Pareto distribution, project s-curve, 3-point estimates, cumulative distribution curve and many others
  • Complete integration with the risk registry so you can move from uncertainty analysis to actually managing the risk


ARM is the de facto schedule risk analysis solution for many industries including aerospace and defence, energy and mining and the government. ARM meets all requirements for the US Department of Defence IMS Guide, ANSI 748 requirements for Earned Value Management and many other agency specific requirements. Contractors that go beyond just meeting the contractual requirements of schedule risk analysis and integrate this process as part of their overall enterprise risk management process more than double their likelihood of delivering project delivering projects on time, on budget and meeting the technical performance of their program.